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CIRCuIT research on building lifespan prediction modelling published in leading engineering journal

CIRCuIT's Copenhagen partners at the Technical University of Denmark have published their latest research exploring how to accurately calculate a building's lifespan when carrying out an environmental assessment. The article, Lifespan prediction of existing building typologies is available to read in the Journal of Building Engineering, volume 65. This study evaluates a generalised logistic lifespan prediction model for existing building typologies.


  • Accurate building lifespans are a prerequisite for reducing errors in Lifecycle Assessment and Lifecycle Costing.

  • Generalized logistic model for predicting lifespans of existing building typologies.

  • Building specific data collected on 124,096 demolition cases in Denmark.

  • Office buildings have much shorter expected lifespans than previously assumed.

  • Newer buildings have a lifespan that is 45% shorter than the average lifespan.


Lifecycle assessment (LCA) is currently one of the construction industry's most widely used methods of environmental assessment. Because LCA calculations is based on life-cycle thinking are the lifespan of the building a sensitive parameter in relation to the calculated overall environmental impact of the building. More accurate assessments of the lifespans of buildings are therefore a prerequisite for reducing errors and uncertainties in LCA and Lifecycle Costing (LCC) calculations.

This study evaluates a generalised logistic lifespan prediction model for existing building typologies. The model is tested as part of a Danish case study based on building data collected from 124,096 cases of demolition. The objective is to investigate whether the typical lifespan used in LCA or LCC calculations accurately describes the remaining service life of existing buildings based on different building typologies and construction periods.

The paper is authored by Rune Andersen and Kristoffer Negendahl.

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